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Brent jumps over $90 as Strait of Hormuz disruption fears build

Brent has gained more than 17% over the prior week, and if disruptions persist, supply shortages could emerge in about 10 weeks, tightening global balances.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Energy

Brent crude opened the week with a gap higher, breaking above the $90 psychological level as markets digested further deterioration in the US-Iran standoff and renewed concerns over the Strait of Hormuz. Action Forex said the latest headlines included reports of US fatalities, a strike on a Kuwaiti energy facility, Iran’s declaration that a ceasefire was no longer valid, and claims the strait had been closed, all of which have reinforced expectations that the dispute may remain unresolved in the near term. Despite the bullish technical move, buying momentum in Asian trading was described as relatively restrained, suggesting some of the weekend escalation had already been priced in. Action Forex argued that the outlook is increasingly driven by time, with the probability rising that the crisis shifts from a negotiating posture to an actual physical supply disruption. According to the story, during the brief period after an interim agreement in June, Iran exported an estimated 2.2 million barrels per day, and that flow is now being withdrawn again as the blockade returns. The piece added that compared with prior escalations when releases from strategic petroleum reserves helped buffer supply fears, markets have less spare cushion today, and some estimates point to potential meaningful physical shortages within around 10 weeks, which could push Brent toward $100 as pricing begins to reflect tighter balances rather than just geopolitical risk.

Latest closeWTI crude $79.00 ▼0.8%|Brent $84.94 ▼0.0%

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