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War, weather and US-Iran tensions push wheat futures higher
CME September wheat futures were up about 14% from June 30 lows as USDA data showed winter wheat production forecast down sharply for 2026.
Weather remains a key driver for agricultural markets in July, but this year the grain complex is also reacting to war-linked risk and US-China trade dynamics, alongside a renewed US-Iran standoff that has affected shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, according to World Grain.
World Grain reports that concern about a Middle East resolution has faded after military actions resumed, and that the conflict is increasingly behaving like a persistent market factor comparable to the Russia-Ukraine war.
On the Russia-Ukraine front, World Grain says multiple attacks by Ukraine on Russian ports and vessels in the Sea of Azov led Russia to close the Kerch Strait, a key channel for wheat shipments, where nearly one-third of Russia’s wheat exports pass.
The article also cites USDA reports released in June showing a weak end to a crop that started with better potential, including a forecast for 2026 US winter wheat production of 1.030 billion bushels, down 27% from 2025, with hard red winter wheat forecast at 496.886 million bushels, down 38%.
Latest closeWheat $653.00 ▲3.6%