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Bitcoin’s S&P 500 link fades, with gold correlations rising
In the second quarter, Bitcoin’s daily correlation with the S&P 500 fell to 0.1 while its correlation with gold rose to 0.6, according to Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode data through June 30.
Bitcoin’s day to day relationship with major equity benchmarks has weakened, while its tie to gold has strengthened, according to a joint report from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode that uses data through June 30. Bitcoin’s daily correlation with the S&P 500 fell to 0.12 during the second quarter, down from 0.58 in the fourth quarter of 2025, and its correlation with the Nasdaq was 0.21 over the same window.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s correlation with gold climbed to 0.57, and its correlation with silver reached 0.63. The report describes this reversal as separating Bitcoin from the “AI-driven” equity trade that helped shape much of crypto’s price action over the past two years.
The authors frame the second quarter gold link around macro drivers, pointing to a firmer dollar and a hawkish Federal Reserve that weighed on both Bitcoin and gold together. They also note that while an equity selloff can help Bitcoin only if it lowers Treasury yields and weakens the dollar, an unwind tied to inflation, tariffs, or energy costs may tighten the same channel that pulled Bitcoin down in the second quarter.
The report also suggests the market may be moving from correction toward accumulation, citing on chain data showing coins that last transacted within three months sitting at multi year lows. It further says dormant supply has been climbing, and that a similar on chain pattern has historically appeared during accumulation phases.
Latest closeGold $4,055.70 ▲0.2%|Silver $58.49 ▲1.2%|Bitcoin $63,995.80 ▼0.2%