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Black Sea grain exports hit as attacks cut Ukraine capacity

Ukraine’s Black Sea export capacity has dropped by one-third amid attacks, and analysts say the disruption is likely to keep global supply tight.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Agriculture

Targeted attacks on Russian and Ukrainian grain infrastructure and cargo ships are severely limiting grain movement out of the two major exporting nations, according to analysts interviewed by World Grain.

World Grain reports that Ukraine’s ability to export grain via the Black Sea has fallen by a third due to missile and drone attacks, while Russia has continued strikes on shipping and agricultural assets, including a July 19 hit on a Guinea-Bissau-flagged cargo ship just outside Odesa that killed 10 people.

Analysts say other ports cannot quickly absorb the backlog, tightening global supply and forcing buyers to source wheat from alternative origins with less risk. Rabobank’s Stephen Nicholson said repairs will take time and that wheat movement would likely be less efficient and more expensive due to higher insurance and freight rates.

World Grain also notes that Ukraine has responded by attacking Russian ships in the Sea of Azov, which handles about 25% of Russian grain exports, and that the Turkish Shipowners’ Association has advised against voyages to Russian and Ukrainian ports because the risk level has reached an unacceptable level, citing 136 merchant vessels attacked in recent months.

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