Commodities
Home›Commodities›Energy›IMF warns oil shock buffers are depleted as US Iran te…
IMF warns oil shock buffers are depleted as US Iran tensions risk supply
Brent crude topped $100 a barrel in mid July before stabilizing after the US announced a pause in hostilities, underscoring supply risk if conflict returns.
Oil markets may be less able to absorb another supply disruption if tensions between the United States and Iran flare again, the International Monetary Fund said. In a recent blog post, the IMF said crude prices would be more vulnerable because markets have depleted three “shock absorbers” that previously helped prevent sharp spikes.
The IMF warned that as tensions rise around the Strait of Hormuz, spare capacity has been used, demand has compressed, and inventories have been drawn down. It added that unless inventories are replenished, the world would start from a weaker position when the next supply shock hits.
The warning comes as a three month ceasefire with Iran has virtually collapsed in the past week, according to the report. The US reimposed a blockade on Iran in mid July, and the article notes that negotiations to end the war have largely stalled, alongside recent US and Iran military strikes over control of the Strait of Hormuz.
The report also cited market context, saying Brent crude topped $100 per barrel in mid July before prices stabilized at month end after the US announced a pause in hostilities. It said that while crude stabilized temporarily, uncertainty remains elevated given the risk that conflict could restart.
Latest closeWTI crude $90.47 ▼1.9%|Brent $98.38 ▼2.3%