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Diesel crunch becomes biggest threat to oil markets, Goldman says

Goldman estimates diesel exports are down about 35% this month, or roughly 2.6 million barrels per day, as refining throughput falls and outages hit Middle East and Russian supply.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Energy

Goldman Sachs says the biggest oil supply squeeze is now concentrated in diesel markets, where global refining activity is at the lowest for this time of year since the 2020 pandemic, according to analysis cited by OilPrice.

The bank pointed to war-driven refinery outages in the Middle East and Russia that have reduced global fuel supply, especially diesel. It said output gains in the Americas and Africa have offset only about a third of the lost supply.

Goldman estimates that in July global refining throughput has slumped by up to 6.5 million barrels per day versus July 2025, and that diesel exports have fallen about 35% this month, or around 2.6 million bpd. As a result, the middle distillate market continues to tighten, with inventories below the seasonal average.

Despite volatility in crude over the past five months, Goldman added that refining margins have stayed at record highs because gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel supply remains tighter than crude supply, even as crude prices rose to $100 per barrel last week.

Latest closeWTI crude $84.41 ▲6.5%|Gasoline (RBOB) $3.215 ▼3.6%

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