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Libya deal talks could revive conflict risks around key oil infrastructure

OilPrice says a push to formalize Libya’s power-sharing framework could be derailed by popular pressure, threatening arrangements that have helped keep crude flows stable for nearly six years.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Energy

OilPrice reports that Libya’s fragile political balance, which has prevented the country from slipping back into civil war, depends in part on an informal arrangement between the rival Haftar and Dbeibah power centers. According to the outlet, eastern and southern control largely sits with the Haftar family, while Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and armed groups aligned with his GNU hold Tripoli and the western state apparatus. The two sides have been unable to eliminate each other, but both have benefited from a division that supports distributing government roles, contracts, and oil revenues without a national election, with Haftar forces also positioned around much of the key oil infrastructure.

OilPrice adds that the Trump administration is trying to turn the current informal accommodation into a formal power-sharing structure. The proposal would preserve Dbeibah’s control of the government, while giving Saddam Haftar, the son of General Khalifa Haftar, control over a new presidential body.

The outlet also says Washington has pushed the rival administrations toward a unified budget and closer military coordination, while encouraging U.S. oil companies to expand their presence around Africa’s largest proven crude reserves. In theory, OilPrice notes, such a deal would preserve ruling families’ access to the state without an election, but the risk is that it relies on Libyans remaining passive, leaving open the possibility the arrangement could unravel.

Latest closeWTI crude $86.80 ▲3.8%

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