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UK labour market cools as BOE rate-hike case weakens
Youth unemployment fell to 16.2% and wage growth remains slower outside government, adding to pressure on Bank of England rate-hike expectations.
UK hiring conditions appear to be cooling, according to commentary cited by the Guardian, with economists pointing to a jobs market that offers “questions” over the need for further Bank of England rate hikes. The report says government payroll growth is running at 1.1% on a three-month annualised basis, but consumer-facing industries such as hospitality and retail have continued shedding jobs, with the pace of decline described as worsening amid pressure from earlier tax and minimum wage changes.
It adds that wage growth is rising faster in government than in the private sector, with pay up 6.1% across government compared with 2.8% in the private sector, alongside falling vacancies and an unemployment rate that remains elevated.
The same live coverage also notes easing UK grocery inflation, alongside oil moving higher, including Brent crude climbing above $91 a barrel as a US-Iran ceasefire ends. The BOE case, according to ING’s James Smith, hinges on whether there is a severe and prolonged spike in energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict.
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