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Bitcoin holds near $64,000 as bond yields surge and Fed odds shift
Traders are pricing roughly a 72% chance the Fed keeps rates unchanged in September, while 30-year Treasury yields above 5% add competition for liquidity-sensitive crypto.
Bitcoin was little changed near $64,000 on Aug. 19, trading within its recent $60,000 to $67,000 range as markets digested the latest Federal Reserve expectations, according to CoinDesk’s newsletter “Daybook.” The largest cryptocurrency briefly climbed above $65,000 before falling about 0.5% since midnight UTC, while the broader CoinDesk 20 index was also steady.
CoinDesk linked crypto stability to shifting macro pricing, noting that softer economic data have lowered expectations for another Fed increase. At the same time, government bonds “crashed worldwide” overnight, pushing yields to the highest levels in years and weighing on stock benchmarks, a setup that can influence risk appetite including in digital assets.
Market pricing showed a higher probability of no rate change in September, with CoinDesk citing Polymarket at about 72% and CME’s Fedwatch at about 67%. The newsletter said investors appear to be seeking a larger term premium rather than simply betting on rising interest rates, and it pointed to a 30-year U.S. Treasury yielding more than 5% as a low-risk alternative to bitcoin, which pays no native yield.
CoinDesk also highlighted inflation risks from oil, with Brent crude rising to about $91 per barrel, while noting gold gained about 8% this month despite paying no yield. The newsletter interpreted the gold move as consistent with bitcoin being treated as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset, and it flagged dollar weakness as a potential tailwind, citing Scotiabank analysts led by Shaun Osborne for the view that short-term USD gains may fade, as reported by Reuters.
Latest closeGold $4,432.00 ▲1.6%|WTI crude $82.40 ▲1.4%|Brent $88.59 ▲1.8%