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Kevin Warsh speech boosts odds of a September Fed rate hike
CME Group data via FedWatch shows the probability of a hike in September rising to 55.7% from 35.4% after the speech.
After US Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks, market pricing shifted toward tighter policy, lifting speculation that the Federal Reserve could raise rates at its September 2026 meeting.
According to Reuters, bets that rates would be increased at the September meeting rose to a 55.7% probability from 35.4% on Thursday, based on CME Group’s FedWatch tool. The move followed Warsh’s indication that the Fed would have “work to do” if policymakers were not confident underlying inflation was returning to its 2% target.
The shift in rate expectations is expected to ripple into India-linked assets, with LiveMint Markets citing analysts who anticipate pressure on global equities when trading resumes Monday. The report also links the rate outlook to potential moves in gold and silver, as higher short-term US bond rates and a stronger US dollar can weigh on those commodities.
On which parts of the market may be most sensitive, Morningstar Wealth’s chief investment officer told Reuters that smaller companies and technology stocks tend to react more sharply to rising interest rates, while other analysts urged investors to avoid aggressive bets and focus on selected opportunities.
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