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Goldman expects diesel refining margins to surge on global shortage

Goldman says refinery outages are 60% higher than seasonal averages, lifting U.S. diesel margins to $63 a barrel in 2027.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Energy

Goldman Sachs expects refiners to earn significantly higher profits as a global diesel shortage tightens supply, revising its prior outlook, according to OilPrice.

The bank tied the improved refining economics to refinery damage and constrained capacity, saying refinery outages are 60% higher than the seasonal average and that the tightness in diesel is likely to extend into next year.

Goldman pointed to running low global diesel stocks, driven by refinery damage in the Middle East and Russia, and said fuel exports from the Persian Gulf are at about 40% of pre-war levels, compared with an estimated 70% to 80% for crude oil exports.

For 2027, Goldman forecast diesel refining margins to reach $63 per barrel for U.S. refiners and average $49 per barrel for refiners in the European Union, up from earlier estimates of $27 and $19 per barrel, respectively.

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