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China’s two-speed economy widens, with tech leading as consumers lag
Action Forex cut its 2026 China GDP growth forecast to 4.6% from 4.8% due to weaker consumer demand, while keeping a 4.7% outlook for 2027.
China’s economy is becoming more uneven, with consumer demand weakening further even as export growth reaches new highs and the tech sector expands, according to analysis from Action Forex.
The outlet links China’s ongoing consumer slump to the country’s housing crisis, while saying it sees signs of stabilization in home sales and expects home prices to stabilize in 2027.
Action Forex also lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 4.6% from 4.8% after disappointing consumer data, and it retained its 2027 forecast at 4.7%.
On trade and geopolitical risk, the analysis says competitive pressure from China on European companies is set to continue, EU and China are on a collision course on trade relations, and tensions over Taiwan remain the biggest geopolitical risk.