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Bitcoin hits lowest S&P 500 price-path correlation since 2015

Bitwise’s log-level measure for Bitcoin versus the S&P 500 fell to about -0.6, while a separate returns-based view using FRED data shows a positive correlation around +0.4.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

Investors comparing Bitcoin with US stocks may be drawing the wrong conclusion from correlation alone, as one widely cited metric shows Bitcoin decoupling from the S&P 500’s direction over time while a returns-based approach points to the opposite.

Crypto asset manager Bitwise said in a September 7 Market Compass that its 260-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 price paths was the lowest since 2015, using a log-level calculation of price levels. In CryptoSlate’s calculation using FRED price data, the log-level correlation is about -0.62, suggesting the two price paths can drift apart even over the same 260-day window.

However, when the comparison is switched to correlations of percentage returns, CryptoSlate’s FRED-based calculation shows a positive relationship of about +0.40. The article notes the two figures are not measuring the same thing, because log-level correlation tracks how price levels move over the period, while returns correlation tracks whether percentage gains and losses tend to move together.

The story also cautions that FRED observations are recorded at different times of day and rely on available daily observations rather than simultaneous closing prices, so the proxy cannot precisely measure Bitcoin’s reaction to a stock-market shock. It adds that for a portfolio holding both assets, whether Bitcoin helps offset equity losses depends on actual return co-movement, volatility, and position sizing rather than price-path correlation by itself.

Latest closeBitcoin $79,310.40 ▲1.1%|S&P 500 7,673.52 ▼0.6%

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