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Dollar and Treasury yields reverse higher after soft NFP

September’s weak NFP data lifted the odds of an October Fed pause to 77.9%, even as the dollar and yields finished the week higher.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

Action Forex reports that September’s soft NFP pushed the probability of an October Fed pause to 77.9%, but Treasury yields and the Dollar Index reversed higher by Friday’s close after initially moving down on the report.

The outlet said Treasury yields fell sharply on the NFP headline before turning and ending higher, while the Dollar Index retreated but held its broader technical structure.

Action Forex added that the FedWatch curve shifted toward an October pause, while still pricing additional tightening later on, with energy inflation and a resilient dollar helping keep inflation concerns in focus.

The story also pointed to Brent crude holding above $100, despite a coordinated G7 reserve release, as part of the backdrop for markets repricing the timing of the Fed’s next move rather than removing the possibility of further tightening.

Latest closeWTI crude $91.26 ▼1.7%|Brent $102.70 ▲0.4%|Dollar index 101.92 ▼0.2%

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