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IEA lowers Russia’s 2026 and 2027 oil output forecast after attacks
The IEA cut its Russian supply outlook by 85,000 bpd for 2026 and 150,000 bpd for 2027, citing damage to refineries, storage and transport infrastructure from intensified Ukrainian drone strikes.
The International Energy Agency cut its forecast for Russia’s oil production for both 2026 and 2027, pointing to intensified Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, including storage, refining and transport assets, OilPrice reported.
According to the IEA, Russia produced an average of 9.2 million barrels per day in 2025, but the outlook for this year and next was reduced from prior projections as strikes continued to weigh on output.
The IEA said it cut its Russian supply forecast by 85,000 bpd for 2026 and by 150,000 bpd for 2027. It expects Russia to average 8.8 million bpd over the forecast period, with 2026 production forecast at 8.9 million bpd and 2027 revised down to 8.8 million bpd.
While the IEA estimated Russia’s crude output rose to 8.86 million bpd in June from 8.74 million bpd in May, it said June production remained 910,000 bpd below the implied OPEC+ target of 9.76 million bpd. OilPrice also noted that Russia has increased crude exports in recent months as domestic refineries have been hit and limited storage capacity has pushed more shipments outward.
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