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Renewable diesel growth boosts the case for higher-value soybeans

U.S. soybean crush capacity rose about 14% since early 2023, and USDA forecasts 2026/27 crush at a record 2.75 billion bushels, supporting demand for soybean oil and protein-rich meal.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Energy Transition

For soybean processors, the next five years will hinge on extracting more value from each bushel, as policy and fuel demand reshape how soy is used, according to World Grain.

The article points to a build-out in crushing and downstream fuel markets, with U.S. soybean crush capacity expanded by about 14% since the start of 2023 and USDA projecting 2026/27 crush at a record 2.75 billion bushels, up about 4% year over year. That outlook supports record output, including soybean oil near 32.6 billion pounds and soybean meal near 65 million short tons, with more capacity slated online through 2030.

Renewable diesel is described as the main engine, with U.S. renewable diesel capacity rising from 790 million gallons in 2021 to about 5 billion gallons in 2025. The article says biomass-based diesel is expected to be the largest outlet for U.S. soybean oil in 2026/2027, and it notes that disruption from biofuel tax credit turbulence in 2025 is expected to ease through 2027 based on EIA and USDA expectations.

World Grain also highlights that processors cannot rely on volume alone, because roughly 80% of a crushed bean ends up as meal and hulls that must sell into feed markets. It cites a longer-term slide in soybean protein, including a CME cut to the soybean meal par protein specification from 48% to 47.5% in 2019, and argues that each 1 percentage point gain in meal crude protein can be worth about $10 to $13 per ton, based on feed economics for swine and poultry diets.

Latest closeWTI crude $90.70 ▲0.5%|Soybeans $1,308.75 ▲0.1%

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