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HSBC lifts 2026 Brent forecast to $90 amid Hormuz squeeze
HSBC expects crude moving through the Strait of Hormuz to rise to about 8 million bpd by end-2026, keeping oil markets tight into mid-2027.
HSBC raised its forecast for 2026 Brent crude to $90 per barrel from $80, citing how the Strait of Hormuz crisis is tightening oil markets and leaving no clear de-escalation path, according to a note cited by The Wall Street Journal.
The bank said oil markets are unlikely to rebalance until the middle of 2027, with a base-case built around a fragile, uncertain US-Iran understanding that remains vulnerable to disruptions tied to shipping security and insurance.
HSBC forecasts that oil flows through Hormuz will increase to about 8 million barrels per day by the end of 2026, up from 6 million bpd now, and expects flows to gradually move up to 9.5 million bpd by mid-2027.
Even with 10 million bpd moving through the chokepoint, HSBC noted that would still be about half pre-war levels, around 19 to 20 million bpd, as Brent hovered above $100 earlier in the week amid escalating tensions.
Latest closeWTI crude $91.10 ▲3.2%|Brent $103.93 ▲3.7%